Trump 2.0. This could be the New Normal

Since COVID-19 arrived at our shores, it has brought with it a new term. Many have asked ‘Could this be the new normal?’ Others have resisted the thought that their lives could be interrupted or managed by a microscopic organism and be told to stay-at-home. But whether you’ve adapted to the new normal or not, others have. The resistance movement may still react the same way with a second wave of the virus only this time it could be deadlier and make many poorer.

Another term of the Trump presidency could have a chilling effect on many Americans. This especially true for those with the most votes who may be denied victory by the Electoral College vote were it to go Trump’s way. It seems somewhat unfair to a democracy, but it is what it is. Thanks to the founding fathers.

Polls or no polls, a Trump win is not unimaginable, it has happened before, it can still be reimagined with the slimmest path to victory. It is a Biden win that has to be imagined even with the widest path to victory. I would say that a Trump win is more likely than unlikely based on two things which all fall under the so-called hidden vote. You may want to know whether there is more hidden vote for Biden than Trump. The answer is nobody knows because there are less truth tellers today than before.

One, In Trump’s America, lying is the new normal. The daily amnesia that let the lies pass unpunished may well decide to have the incumbent win. Lies have become intertwined with the public discussion as relates to polls and all things related to politics. The lies that a president tells may have well trickled down to those who support him in the last four years. I would farther say that there is a ‘lying spirit’ that define the polls and make them now and after election too good to be true. Lying hasn't denied Trump the White House even with a ‘moral majority’ Evangelical base. Why will they who still support the president do so at the ballot but cover it up when asked about it by the pollsters. It’s embarrassing and tough to explain. Yet, they don't owe anybody any explanation why they support the president.

Second. There are obvious assumptions that exist in the polling that may not capture the real sentiment with certain groups. These two groups don't think all the same way. The assumption that college educated whites are more liberal and that immigrants are democratic couldn't be farther from the truth. There are immigrants groups that would want to see immigrants from their part of the world therefore could vote the president if he is inclined to favor them.

There is this belief that immigrants are more sympathetic to the party that fights for them. Immigrants are not a monolithic group and carry with them the ideals they come with from their part of the world. For example, there are immigrants who will vote with conservatives because they are shocked by the more liberal America and as a result vote with the party that is mostly anti-immigrant. These are the people who may not tell the truth when polled and may not be polled at all because they are assumed to vote with the pro-immigrant party.

Many college educated whites are open to liberal ideas because they are factual and scientific in their thinking such as climate change. However, they could also be startled by the welcome with open arms policy of the democratic candidate to more than 100,000 refugees yearly into America. This group is frequently polled, but they could vote somewhat different from what they say in the poll.

America just clinched 229,000 deaths from COVID-19 and everybody in the news media thinks this is the top issue. The two candidates are also making it a top issue whether in their denial-ism or acknowledgement of its devastation. But there are real jitters that the true soul of America has reincarnated itself and may well rear its head once again with a Trump win. That the America we knew is no more, it has a new soul that will define the new normal.

The conservatives recently celebrated an accelerated majority in the Supreme Court even when they have always been the majority. To most conservatives, they believe that there is a new normal that is establishing itself and the highest court could be just be the beginning culminated by a Trump victory.

The ‘have our country back’ sentiment could be the driver to Trump’s base. Strangely it will be the conservative immigrant who gives him victory but will not tell you so because they are ill-placed to say so as immigrants voting for a president hostile to immigration. The college educated white or black man may well vote for Trump but won't say so when asked because its almost irrational to vote for someone who denies science in more than one way whether it is climate change or COVID-19 pandemic. It all doesn't make sense now but may make sense when there is an unexplained vote.

Everything about this election polling is pegged about people being truthful and actually voting. We may well become unpleasantly surprised that it was the election will be about lies and voter turnout. Many may discover after the election that those we thought would vote as polled actually lied and the voter turnout we expected fell short. Whom then do you blame for the unexpected end, the liar or the lazy one?

A Trump win is therefore not that far-fetched. This could be a prep on adjusting to a new normal four more years under Trump. At the end of the day, it may turn out well for Mr. Biden if those who dread Trump’s reelection far, far outweigh those who dread more liberal escapades for the Democrats to capture a majority of Electoral College vote.

There is a likelihood that the lines for a new normal in American politics were drawn in the 2016 elections even before the pandemic. Many have resisted the thought that Trump could be reelected and have not prepared for this outcome. If you are part of the resistance that wants to go back to normal, maybe it is too late. It is not because Mr. Biden is a lousy candidate but the country may have decided this is the way they want things to be.

Many may not come out in the open to say they want the Trump normal but their vote will ultimately say so on their behalf. If you are drained by Trump’s presidency already, you might need more fuel in the tank to handle four more years if he is reelected. A second wave of a Trump presidency could be deadlier thanks to more COVID-19 deaths, and unbearable to many who may still be reeling from the chaos, regret and shock of his first term. His supporters too may have more than they bargained for which may go both ways, the good and the ugly. That's why this election matters more than most.

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